The inter-Korean summit has raised
stakes for trump
Some day ago all world see the two
super power country ( North & South Korea)
The footage of smiles, hugs and handshakes
between leaders of north and south korea made for great television. But it also
demonstrated tht puzzling together peace on th Korean peninsula still requires two
missing pieces. Kimjong-un’s true intention regarding his nuclear weapons and
president Donald Trump’s ability to persuade the North Korean leader to part
with his armaments. Thus, the Korea summit has only raised the stakes for the
expected summit between Trump and Kim in May or June.
You can’t blame the
Koreans for wanting to declare peace on the peninsula and finally put an end to
the Korean ar. The country did not ask to be divided in 1945 by the United
States and the Soviet Union at the start of the Cold War. And despite the end
of that war decades ago, the antagonistic relationship lives on, excacerbated
by North korea’s drive for nuclear weapons.
Peace declaration have been an
integral part of the previous summits between the two Koreas in 2000
(Kin
Dae-Jung and Kim Jong-il) and in 2007 (Roh Moo-Hun and Kin Jong-il), as well as
part of five joint documents darting to 1972. Still, there’s something different
this time around. The languages in the summit communiqué clearly reflects the
urgency of South Korean concern about the peninsula’s approach to the brink in
2017 with 20 North Korean ballistic Missile tests, claims of a subterranean
hydrogen
boom
detonation, heightened US military exercises and the US president’s
threats to rain “fire and Fury” on North Korea.
In this regard, north Korea’s reciprocal
cal interest in diplomacy army reflect not just the persuasiveness of its
southern counter part’s diplomatic over tubers but also concerns about Trumps
threats of war. But what this summit highlights is the indispensability of the
United States to a diplomatic solution for peace and an end to the nuclear
crisis on the peninsula. The Koreans end the 1953 Korean War armistice would
require the united state (and China) as a signatory.
And it is hard to imagine
that Trump would sign such a piece of paper without the end of the nuclear
weapons programmed in North Korea.
The summit unfortunately did not bring
greater clarity to this piece of the puzzle. While the two Korean leaders
confirmed the common goal of complete denuclearization and a nuclear-free
Korean peninsula, their statements fall far short of previous commitments by
Pyongyang to abandon
“All nuclear weapons and existing nuclear programmers” in
the 2005 denuclearization agreement I worked on as the US deputy head of
delegation to the Six-party talks for President George w Bush. Nor do the statements
come close to North Korea’s commitment in a previous inter Korean agreement in
1992 to forswear the development and possession fo nuclear weapons, as well to
prohibit reprocessing and enrichment facilities in their countries. Perhaps Kim
is saving this agenda item for his meeting with the United States. Or perhaps
he never intends to give away his weapons and instead wants to have his cake
and eat it, too- in the form of a peace treaty that would make it harder for
the United States to carry out a preventive military attack, a photo op with
the US leader that legitimizes him as ruler of the newest nuclear weapons
state, and the promise of lifting economic sanctions, all in return for a cap
on nuclear weapons production and ban on missile testing.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in
will come to Washington to meet face to face in the coming weeks with Trump and
encourage him to go ahead with his planned summit with him to keep up the diplomat
momentum. And Trump, not one to shy away from the moment, will almost certainly
oblige. But the stakes and the expectation have only been made higher by the
Korea summit. Trump needs to respect South Korean desires for a peaceful
diplomatic solution, but he should also maintain economic sanctions pressure on
the North Koran regime, while at the same time compelling Kim to drop his
weapons and embrace open Market force that could have deleterious effects for
his own autocratic rule.
Moreover, given the hype Trump has
created around the meeting with his own tweets, he cannot break his own
cardinal rule, which is never to want a deal more than your counterpart. This
meeting will be a clear test of the president’s self – proclaimed negotiating
skills, and the stakes could not be higher because failure would mean the end
of diplomacy and are turn to discussions of military options. After all, the
only thing after a summit is a cliff the writer is a professor at Georgetown
University and senior adviser at the Center for strategic and international
Studies.
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